Explaining Voter Moderation In Post-Communist Ethnic Party Systems: A Cross-National Investigation in the Balkans

In this paper, I explore conditions that contribute to a rare outcome in ethnic party systems: the election of parties with moderate positions on interethnic relations. More specifically, I investigate why voters of the small, impoverished, and ethnically fragmented states of Bosnia and Macedonia, which share the same electoral system, chose parties with divergent positions on interethnic relations in 2002. Statistical analysis of survey data, content analysis of local media, and analysis of institutional arrangements help understand this puzzle. I find that political institutions, the parties supplied by elites, and external intervention interact to offer voters in Macedonia stronger options for moderation than in Bosnia. These rules and actors magnify small differences in preferences among citizens in the two states. One of the institutional arguments suggests that voting for moderate parties in Macedonia is partly an artifact, rather than an intentional expression of interest in interethnic cooperation. This sobering finding emphasizes the fragility of moderation in Macedonia’s ethnic party system.